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Category: Stats (page 1 of 2)

Flames of War Tournament Stats (IRE/NI: May 2013)

We’ve got another Flames of War tournament kicking off soon, it seems like an appropriate time to have a look at the state of the game. We’re still operating with a seriously flawed data set (not enough tournaments yet) but we’ll improve over time.

First up is the big pie chart of nationalities played. The Germans remain very popular but their market share has dropped slightly. The Americans have also slipped slightly while the British record the biggest increase. Soviets and Hungarians climb very slightly. Overall, it’s situation normal here with an even mix of Germans and the rest.

I mentioned in the last round up that the tournament scene was notable for its list variety and that remains unchanged. The last tournament had twelve players with twelve completely distinct armies and included six never-before-used company lists. We’re still waiting on a list to be re-used. I suspect that run will end with the next tournament, this Sunday, but it’s still nice to see such a large measure of originality and experimentation.

The win ratio graph has gone to hell after a run of draws (which I treat as losses). I wouldn’t read too much into it as we’re going to keep seeing big swings like this until we’ve gotten a large number of tournaments into the system. It’s also a bit of fudged statistic as the national lists can vary widely in type and quality. With that in mind, we’ll quickly say that the Germans and Americans see a drop, the Soviets and Hungarians climb slightly and the British completely tank. Now, the last tournament didn’t see many of the new Bridge by Bridge companies so the British are still running on their older lists and I think we see that the v.2 versions are just a bit outclassed.

Those general overviews don’t really help in that a German list could be anything from a Jadgtiger company with a small number of heavy tank destroyers to a Luftwaffe Flak battalion pressed into service. There’s a wide variety of force lists which have only been played rarely so we’re going to ignore those and focus on the regularly played options. In essence, I’m ignoring the force lists that have only been used by a single player at a single tournament. So, what interesting tidbits can be drawn from the data? What’s are the most popular and successful lists?

The most popular army list is, without a doubt, Kampfgrupper Pieper from Devil’s Charge. It makes up 12% of all armies played and a whopping 24% of all German armies fielded in tournaments. However, it has the worst win ratio of any of the widely used lists, winning 22% of its games. It may have the numbers but it’s lacking in staying power.

The second most popular list is everyone’s least favourite opponent, the vile 2nd Infantry Division from Devil’s Charge. To no-one’s shock, it has the highest win ratio of any list at 69%. You could argue that it’s the players behind the list driving the win ratio up but as one of the guilty, I can say you’re wrong. The rules revisions to tank destroyers may draw some of the venom from the list.

The Panzerkompanie from Grey Wolf (third in popularity) is the second strongest performer on a 64% win ratio. I’ve got a real soft spot for it and it continues to perform even in the face of some internet hate. The bronze medal goes to the Hungarian force, Puskas Szazad on a 63% win ratio. This is a bit of a surprise and it’s probably the combination of assault guns and plentiful artillery that make it deadly.

As a quick finish, I’ll say that tank lists are played more often than infantry and mech lists are the least popular. You could argue that tank lists appeal more to players due to their low cost in actual money, their iconic status (think of the Tiger, Sherman and T-34) or the ease with which a force can be assembled and transported. I honestly can’t say.

When we look at the percentage of their games won by these list types, things change. Infantry lists score highly while the tank lists do not perform well. This is largely in line with the results of the 2012 ETC where the foot-sloggers strongly out-performed the armour. As we get the results for more tournaments, I’ll be curious to see if this trend continues.

Flames of War Tournament Stats (Ireland and Northern Ireland)

We’ve seen three Flames of War tournaments so far with War in the North coming up very soon. Down in the secret Warhead bunker, the pre-tournament plotting saw wild and unfounded talk of total infantry dominance. Flamethrowers were fueled, assault guns began revving their engines, hopes were raised and…. a load of tank lists suddenly appeared. I thought it might be interesting to check the stats and see what’s actually happening.

We’re relying on the results of three tournaments so we can expect some kinks in the early stages but I think it’s worth the effort. I’m avoiding all mention of players and focusing on lists to avoid wandering anywhere near the awful concept of player rankings.

1) What’s the most popular nationality?

This was a easy one, it was ze Germans by a massive margin. The Western Front is very strongly represented in Ireland. The Americans also do well. I’m guessing that since the game has begun to expand massively since the release of the v.3 rules, the American/German focus of the last few books has seen most people focus on those nationalities. The availability of the new PSC kits also makes the German lists quite cheap to build.

The newer Market Garden compilation (British/German) and incoming Ost Front in Germany books (Soviet/German) should see the balance swing again as newer Soviet and British lists appear. I would hope to see the Germans remain steady on 50% as it lets us run more “no blue on blue” tournaments.

2) Who wins most of their games?

Two points to make here, firstly, I’ve treated all losing draws as losses, secondly, I have not taken into account the margin of victory. Consider it a rough guideline rather than an exact depiction. We’re dealing with a very small sample size here so we can expect the results to shift dramatically over time. I would expect to see the Soviets to continue to sit behind the curve and the Americans to stay slightly ahead of the others.

The core American lists (2ID/ARP/TDC) are very forgiving but the new tank destroyer rules might undermine them slightly. Subjectively, I noticed that the American lists did tend to drop down the rankings due to scoring 4-3 narrow wins rather than 6-1 slaughters.

3) How much variety are we seeing?

We’re seeing an incredible amount of list diversity. The thirty forces submitted for the three tournaments come from twenty-two different army lists. Even when the forces come from the same list, their composition is extremely varied. For example, the SS-Kampfgruppe Peiper entry above represents three very different forces, one based on King Tigers, one based on Panthers and one based on the humble Panzer IV J.

We’ll wait for the results of the next tournament before digging more deeply into the infantry vs armour debate.

Irish Warmahordes Faction Rankings

While we wait for the Retcon/Moofool results to wind their way onto Ranking HQ, we briefly consider the newly founded Warmahorde rankings. To those weaned on Ranking HQ, this system is very different. The various factions and casters are ranked, no details on individual players are available. The Warmahordes players have consciously avoided a player-centred ranking system, largely based on their unease at its impact on Warhammer 40k and Fantasy tournament scene.

The system is very much in the teething stages with less than a handful of tournaments submitted. Each new event will cause some major shifts but, for now, let’s just examine the state of play. We disregard the Mercenary faction as they have yet to be played.

1st Place

The barbaric and backwards Trollbloods finish top of the faction rankings with a win ratio of 87.5%. Their casters all perform well. Prime Grissel leads them with a 3 for 3 record. Borka has the dubious honour of being the only Troll caster to lose a game, going 2 for 3. With a total of eight games played, they are the least used faction in this ranking period.

2nd Place

Lagging well behind the leaders, the twisted Legion of Everblight have a solid win ratio of 71.43%. Everblight’s draconian rage should be focused on Epic Lylyth and her shoddy 0 for 2 record. The blighted poster-children are Bethanye and Kallus, each on 3 for 3. Their position is impressive as they are joint fifth, with Skorne, in popularity. Fourteen games played in the period.

3rd Place

The righteous, just and godly Protectorate of Menoth have a respectable 60% win ratio. The perfectly rounded number reflects Menoth’s divine influence. That it is not 100% is clearly due to a lack of faith on the part of the Menite players. Thyra leads the congretion with a 2 for 2 record. The ever popular Prime Kroess is the shakiest caster on 2 for 4. They are still an uncommon faction, sixth favourite with ten games played.

Not On The Podium

Those desert rats, Skorne, are close behind on a win ratio of 57.14%. Rasheth and Epic Makeda are the two main casters with a combined record of 7 for 10. They find themselves tied with Legion as the fifth most popular faction, on fourteen games.

Poxy Druids, what have they ever done for us? They ruin the roads, block the drains,burn your schools and warp our cattle. For all their efforts, Circle has a 55.56% win ratio. Morvahna is, by far, the most popular choice running 3 for 5 in her games. A rare faction, joint seventh on nine games.

Those genocidal, sectarian fascists, Cygnar sit on a 47.62% win ratio. May it slump further. Epic Caine is their only strong performer, going 2 for 2. His struggles can’t compensate for Siege, who goes 2 for 7. Despite their reputation as under-powered in tournament play, they are the second most popular faction with 21 games played.

The humble and gentle animal faction, Minions, have a symetrical win ratio of 44.44%. Most of their casters are winning half their games with Sturm and Drang dragging the average down on 0 for 2. Another rarity, joint seventh in popularity on 9 games

The Retribution of Scyrah. They may be a doomed race but they’re determined to get a few hits in as they’re dragged towards the door. They’re just not hitting hard enough, a win ratio of 41.18%. Even their most popular caster, Rahn, is running 4 for 9. Another common choice, Ossyan is doing terribly on 0 for 4. Third in popularity with seventeen games played.

This is a surprise as Cryx is seen as one of the strongest factions. But they slump to a 34.78% win ratio. Some of the strongest casters, in theory, come in very low. Epic Skarre is 0 for 1, Epic Deneghra is 1 for 3. They can take some consolation from the fact that they are the most popular faction with 23 games played in total.

Regrettably, Khador appear to have replaced Cygnar as the whipping boys of the Iron Kingdom with a win ration of 26.67%. Strakhov fights bravely and manages to go 2 for 2. But some of the remaining casters are starting to look like traitors. Karchev, Prime Butcher, Prime Irusk, Prime Sorcha and Epic Sorcha have a combined record of 0 for 9. The fourth most popular faction with 15 games played.

For more detail on all casters and factions, the full rankings are available here.

Tournament Stats: Itzacon

 Itzacon 8: Best in Show

I’ve been told that pictures of scantily clad women artifically boosts your hit count. In the name of Science!, let’s see what a picture of an Itzacon “princess” does. For the sake of completeness, I’ll have to splice some tasteful hardcore shots into the next tournament review.

Another week, another con. Only two tournaments left until the ETC season ends. As befitting someone who posts a lot on 40K, I’ll actually be playing Infinity over the final weekend. You can sign up for that (and most likely, beat me) here. We’re going to mix up the format slightly, the percentage of army points pie chart is dead, long live the top score per codex chart.

Another decent mix of codexes with Blood Angels being rather prominent. I suspect this is as a result of its domination of the Highlander format. Fourteen of the sixteen codexes make an appearance, Dark Angels and Eldar are the missing pieces. The percentage of loyalist chapters is running at 52% of all armies. Power armoured armies running at a relatively low 58% of the total. Overall, the seven stronger codexes (Wolves, Knights, Guard, Deldar, Necrons, Orks, Blangels) have about 80% of the player base. The rest are represented by token players.

The average scores see Tau (amazing) coming out ahead. Daemons also do well. In this case, solid performances by single players. When we look at the armies used en masse, the Space Wolves do best on average. The Grey Knights and Blood Angels are popular but very patchy. Guard are also all over the scale.

As night follows day, Space Marines crawl into last place. Someone, please, bring them back to the glory days of Vulkan. We see that Blood Angels, Necrons and Guard have had their averages dragged down but, in the right hands, can do very well.Space Wolves despite solid average scores, don’t really break into the upper echelons of the tournament. The Daemons player does well, his comrades sporting Chaos, Nids and Space Marines less so.

The Tau result may be some manner of quirk but it’s important to recognise stellar achievements in toy soldiery. Thus we award The War Altar’s InAugural Unfeasibly Large Trophy With Excessively Long But Somewhat Fitting Title For Services To Underrated Codexes to… the con’s solitary Tau player… one Nudie McTubs.

Who’s Who: ETC Wild Card Predictions

(Click on images for larger versions of charts.)

With the season approaching its end, all WAAC eyes turn to the ETC selection process. This year’s captain faces the prospect of choosing four players from the tournament scene to join the three automatic qualifiers. As noted in our ETC review last summer, in-tournament pairings, overall list choices and player skill are the three key elements of a strong ETC performance. We cannot yet shed light on the first two factors but I think we can examine the latter. Can we identity the strongest contenders for wildcard slots, when considering only their results in the run-up to selection?

Before I continue, a disclaimer, there’s always a danger when you comment on a process that is still underway. I should state that I’m not involved in team selection for the 40k ETC team in any way, this post is merely an off-shoot of all my previous posts on documenting actual (as opposed to rumoured) trends in the tournament scene. The initial two charts are drawn solely from the fully ranking 1750/1850 point, ETC style tournaments in this season. I have not included results from the last season as I believe that we’re better served looking at recent form. I’ve excluded BannerCon from the initial charts, simply due to the small number of attendees. However, both Bannercon and all the Highlander style tournaments are covered in the charts in the second half of the post. The actual analysis excludes Northern Irish players but they have been included in the charts if anyone is curious to see the full picture.
 
We’ll be starting with the first tournament of the 2011 qualification period, Q-Con and the charts are competely up to date. As of the time of writing, Itzacon and Retcon are the only remaining large tournaments. We could see some late changes to the following.

Top Threes

When we look at the number of top three finishes achieved this year, there is a single player who is, without question, the strongest performing player in Ireland. This is Paul Quigley with six trips to the podium in ETC-style events. Richard Flood and Alec Cornelius follow with four high placings apiece. These players look likely to take the automatic qualifying spots. With almost half of all 2012 podium spots held by this elite group, the rest of us are clearly well behind.

Our actul interest lies further down. We must look to the remaining top table players to see who’s likely to make the team. Jan Karnowski, Philip Johnston and Jannik Rottgen are the other three best performing players on the tournament scene. Two of these players are ineligible for the Irish team (one has played for the Northern Irish team, one has played for the German team) but Phil is eligible and in a strong position.

When Team Northern Ireland-declared players and the captain, Mike Tangney, are stripped out, we are left with Dan Ahern, Brian McKenzie, Philip Johnston, Tristram Hills and Peter Scott as the only other players to finish in the top three in an ETC tournament this year. I find the notion of these five players competing four open slots rather appealing. But how to separate them?

Top Fives

When we widen the net to include all top 5 finishes, the same players continue to lead the table but we get some additional chasers and some division within the initial chasing six. The captain Mike, Brian, Dan and Philip all slip a little ahead, with Phil maintaining his lead over the others. Tristram and Peter fall a bit behind.

Widening the net also introduces Ivan Sheehan, Jay McKeown, Darren Kerwick, Brian Leonard and Eoin O’Mahony to the list of potential inductees, as all have have turned in at least one top table performances during the season but have not finished in the top three.

Other Top Threes

Now, some of you will be muttering that you’ve done rather well in other tournaments, so if I include BannerCon and the Highlander tournaments, do we get more contenders? Yes, we do. Admittedly, it’s of wildly varying quality with Encore winner, Sam Santijirakun, being forced to line up alongside Warpcon/Gaelcon not-winner, Joseph Cullen. Joining them are Dave Coleman, Luke Osborne, Mervyn Murphy, Ulick O’Sullivan, Caolan Gibbons, Gary Griffith and Jason Clark.

Other Top Fives 

If we stretch our net to breaking point and include all top five finishers from every tournament regardless of format or numbers, Merlin Goss, Donal Carroll and Paul O’Donoghue slip into the tables as contenders.

We see that the pool of available talent could vary from a high-performing but severely limited pool of five players to a more open pool of twenty-three players, all of whom can point to some form of tournament success.

Alphabetical Grading System

There’s a distinct pecking order appearing and I’ve tried to document it below. The players are listed in no particular order within their grades. Northern players are, again, cruelly excluded. I’ve also stripped out Brian, Joe and Ulick who have defected to the Irish Flames of War team.

Grade A- Almost Dead-Cert Qualified
Mike Tangney (Auto-qualifies,otherwise would have been Grade B)
Richard Flood
Paul Quigley
Alec Cornelius

We see that the three best players have, barring a major upset, secured their places alongside the captain. This isn’t really a surprise and bodes well for the team. The fact that the auto-qualifying captain would most likely have grabbed a wildcard slot regardless is also good news. It’s likely that we’ll see Grey Knights, Necrons, Dark Eldar, Eldar/Tyranids come from here.

Grade B- Very Probable Wildcards
Dan Ahern
Philip Johnston

There are two players who are close behind the auto-qualifiers, omitting either of these would be difficult to justify, as things stand. Phil, certainly, would grab the Space Wolves slot and Dan has a strong track record with a range of codexes.

Grade C- Strong Contenders
Tristram Hills
Peter Scott

There are also two stragglers who fall only slightly behind the six mentioned above, it’s probable that one will make the team. The armies fit well with both Imperial Guard and Chaos being unlocked for the overall team.

Grade D- Also in the Running
Eoin O’Mahony
Ivan Sheehan
Brian Leonard
Jay McKeown
Darran Kerwick

There’s an additional group of five players whose performances haven’t been to the same standard but have had some success in ETC style tournaments. If some of the above are passed over, we might see these players recruited to provide specific builds/codexes. The issue for most of these players is that their codex of choice is likely to have been claimed by someone higher in the pecking order. Jay’s Grey Knights and Ivan’s Guard, I suspect, would appear to be likely victims.

Grade E- The Herd of Hopefuls
Dave Coleman
Luke Osborne
Ralph Risk
Mervyn Murphy
Caolan Gibbons
Gary Griffith
Sam Santijirakun
Colin Murray

When we stretch the criteria further, there are an additional eight players with tournament success outside the ETC format. They may not be able to point to any top five finishes within the format but there are other factors at play in team selection. It may prove that a uncommon build is needed and someone within this group is suited to the role. From reports on the Highlander format, that would be something involving Stormravens.

Grade F- Chasing down the Pack
Merlin Goss
Paul O’Donoghue
Donal Carroll

And a further three with smaller successes. I’d be very surprised if the wildcards came from this far down but if a Daemons player is called for, it is possible that Merlin is called on. The rest of us have nothing to do but reflect on our failings and try for a few top level finishes next year.

Just for the sake of giving ye a chance to call me on it later (and because the title of the post demands it), I’ll attempt some predictions. I’m betting that three of the wildcards will be Dan, Peter and Phil. I suspect that Dan might be handed the Guard list, which he has experience with. That bounces Tristram out of the race and leaves the last slot free. At a wild guess, Eoin with a Highlander FunBus-inspired Blood Angels list.

EDIT: I’m informed that Luke Osborne is captaining the South African team and that Jannik has declared for the Irish team. If so, then I’d predict that he’d certainly grab the fourth wildcard slot.

Warpcon 2011: Stats

Warpcon 2012, an 1850 point, ETC-style scoring, five round tournament which drew players from all over the island, north and south. This is one of the best opportunities to watch the various regional metagames collide and pick at the resulting carnage. I’ve stripped the scores down to just battle points and exported the usual trio of graphs.

From a codex diversity perspective, it’s looking great, with all but the Witch Hunters appearing. We also don’t see three or four codexes claiming most of the players. The Necrons have come from nowhere to claim a decent share of the field. The Grey Knights appear somewhat reduced from the highs of last autumn/winter. I remain utterly bemused by the continuing decline of the Imperial Guard.

It appears that popularity and success are linked as Space Wolves, Blood Angels, Necrons and Grey Knights do well. Most codexes appear to be up on their expected percentage. In fact, I have never before seen such widespread success by such a variety of armies. It begs the question, which armies gave up all those battle points?

It’s a bit of a shocker. The Dark Eldar crash to their lowest position since records began. Clearly, there has been something of a brain drain away from the codex. Space Marines, the long-standing herald of the fluffy player, rise slightly above the emo elves but still provide the other main source of battle points. Aside from the Templar’s score, the remaining codexes are not worlds apart. Consider 50 points to be the average expected score and you see that most armies are in and around that level.
The strong Necron performance is noteworthy but it remains to be seen whether it continues into the next tournament or if the players adapt to its tricksy style. As a super secret source informs us, the new threat is “Tesla Spam. This is basically Venom Spam with S7 weapons, and AV13. Nasty stuff. Not unbeatable in my book, but the top place finish says it all.”

Irish 40k Tournaments: Quick Season Review

Full Season

For the past few months we’ve been looking at the average scores and overall use of each codex on the Irish tournament scene. I suspected that taking the average score would tend to undervalue the performance of particularly popular codexes but ran with it anyway. However, poring through the stats, it appeared that focusing only on the highest placed finishers might give us a better picture of the season.

I’ve looked back at every tournament since the beginning of 2011 and compiled the numbers of top five finishes by the respective codexes. The data has been gathered from Rankings HQ and begins with Warpcon 2011 and continues as far as Dominion Day V.

Obviously, 2011 was the Year of the Knight. The Grey Knight codex takes a commanding lead, well ahead of the nearest contenders. In the chasing pack, we have three codexes traditionally seen as the strongest current builds, Dark Eldar, Space Wolves and Imperial Guard. They are joined by the quirks of the Irish scene, Orks and Chaos. The Lash and Kan Wall list continue to perform well.

At the other end of the scale, we see the Tyranids and Tau huddled in obsolesence without a decent finish between them. Despite suggestions that the Black Templars had a period of excellent results in the spring, we see that this was greatly over-estimated. The other results are also rather conditional. The Eldar results trace to a single successful run at the Irish GT. The triumph of the Witch Hunters and Daemons dates from Warpcon. For the sake of completeness, all Necron results are with the newer codex.

Split Season

As the above is the full season, Grey Knight dominance might be understated. To confirm this, I’ve broken the year into two sections, the first being the tally before the Grey Knights appear and the second being the aftermath.

It’s about what you’d expect, the Space Wolves, Guard and Dark Eldar do well. Ork and Chaos continue to carve themselves a niche. Again, Warpcon 2011 was responsible for some of the more unexpected finishers to the right of the scale. There has been a reduction in diversity in the top finishers since then.

Now, watch what happens when the Grey Knights arrive.

After the release of Codex: Grey Knights, everything shifts. They take as many places as the second and third codexes combined. They have as many finishes as the last twelve codexes combined. That is a level of dominance which was not clear from the individual breakdowns of the last few tournaments. If this continues into the next year, it suggests certain balance issues within the game itself which will be difficult to resolve.

Overall Popularity

While I was digging through the tournaments, I got a little curious as to which codex was the most popular in actual numbers. I’ve compiled the numbers of times each codex was used in an Irish tournament in 2011. Each appearance represents one player’s complete run at a single tournament, not number of games played.

The data isn’t perfect, some tournaments didn’t have their full details uploaded. There were twenty-two errors in the Warpcon entry, one error in the Retcon results and one in the Assault on Arkham: Summer War results. They have all been combined in the Unknown category. I believe we still get a reasonably accurate overview.

All appearances of the Necrons, both old and new, have been combined into one entry. All appearances of the Sisters of Battle and the older Witch-hunters codex have also been combined under Sisters of Battle.

It turns out that rather than having one Space Marine for each Imperial planet, there’s about six Marines for each Imperial Guardsman. For a fluff purist like myself, this suggests that if they could just stop the Grey Knights fighting each other, the galaxy would be secure by Tuesday.

Moocon 4 vs Dominion Day 5

We look today at the shape of the Irish tournament scene at the 1000 point level. A recent development, it is heavily comped with most tournaments using the Highlander format. On a technical note, while only battle points are used for the D-Day tournament, it was not possible to strip out those details for Moocon.

We’ve got two largely distinct populations of players here, the first is Munster-based and the second is Ulster-based. Barring some travelling Leinster players, there is little overlap. Hopefully, the upcoming K-Con will provide similar data for the Leinster scene. It is interesting to see that random chat with my local gamers as to the army breakdown of the Ulster scene was unerringly accurate while similar chatter on the Munster scene proved only half-right.

Bear in mind as you read, that no judgements are being made (anymore) as to the strength of individual books. When we mention Necrons doing well, think of it as meaning Necron lists as they are currently being played. The player is always a factor but the exercise is still useful in highlighting the relative standing of each faction.

Now, on to the pictures.

Moocon
Welcome to Cark. Reports from the front suggested that this was a Grey Knight-heavy tournament but the actual figures show that, while popular, their presence was lower than at previous tournaments. In fact, we see the widest range of codexes in any tournament since we started keeping careful tabs. With fourteen distinct army types, almost all factions are represented and the tournament is the most overtly diverse that this series has covered to date. That would be a good thing.
Five armies perform strongly at Moocon and they are a mix of old and new. The most modern books; Grey Knights, Dark Eldar and Necrons all do well. But a quick glance at the names involved will suggest that player skill is a factor. Amongst older armies, Tau and Chaos prove to be effective. The remainder must make do with less than their share. At a glance, Space Wolves, Blood Angels, Eldar, Space Marines, Imperial Guard and Tyranids are down.
The Dark Eldar do very well again. In Ireland, this is clearly a great codex being played by great players. The codex itself has a great of variety within it which suits it to the Highlander format. We see the similar Grey Knights and Necrons codexes do well. And we also see a strong showing by the Tau and Chaos, both of which had been theory-hammered as having great potential within this format. The Eldar have an unhappy time of it and Space Wolves appear to have suffered something of a brain drain as top ranking players abandon the codex.
Dominion Day
Once more, Grey Knights are amongst the most popular choices but the Northern scene appears to be the true home of the 3+ save. Loyalist marines make up 61% of the army lists. The Orks also appear to breeding in the region with another strong showing. Aside from those features, we also have a decent mix of armies with eleven distinct codexes being played on the day.
After some shaky recent performances, Grey Knights do well again, suggesting they like the format. They are joined by Necrons, Orks, Space Wolves and Sisters of Battle. The biggest losers are the Space Marines, Eldar and Imperial Guard. But for actual averages, we turn to the big orange graph.
The Eldar come in solidly last, which is identical to the Moocon results. Space Marines also do poorly, as was the case in every tournament covered thus far. The high scoring Sisters of Battle are interesting, their first appearance at the level is strong but as it’s based on the score of a single player, it shouldn’t be considered a trend. We see that Space Wolves appear to be stronger in the Northern scene and Guard equally…. average in both areas.
In the next couple of weeks, we might break out a full review of the 2011 season focusing solely on the highest ranking lists to see whose year it really was.

Assault on Arkham: Autumn Stats

Thanks are due to Jonny for passing on the information required to compose this little essay. Sharing is caring. We have a Northern tournament under the spotlight today and I was quite curious to see if there would be any major shifts in army choice or results. The latest Assault on Arkham event was a 5 round, 1750 point, ETC 2011 style tournament with largely Northern players and a small Dublin detachment. With only game balance in mind, I disregarded all but battle points and I believe we now have a passable initial overview of the Northern tournament scene.

There is a strong similarity to Gaelcon and Dominicon in some of the army percentages. We see that the Grey Knights have taken a dominant position again. Space Wolves and other Marine codexes are present in the normal amounts. The Blood Angels codex seems marginally more popular than elsewhere. The main surprise is the presence of Orks, these have been rarer in the Dublin-area tournaments.

So although differences can be highlighted, the overall picture suggests that there is only very slight variation in army preferences in the region.

We see the Grey Knights under-perform again, despite their abundance, results have been patchy. This either represents people playing softer lists, less experienced players or a less clement meta-game in the icy wastes up North. Which it might be isn’t immediately apparent. The Space Wolves also take slightly less than their expected share. Since we’ve started making these charts, the Dark Eldar have been the most consistent performers and we see it again in Arkham Assault. Their efforts are only overshadowed by an exceptional performance by the Ork codex. The greenskins take more than their due.

Undoubtedly, strong players are responsible but it is possible that there is more to the phenomena.

The Orks return with a bang with an average score of 71. That actually stands as the highest average for any codex in the three tournaments examined so far. With Jan’s triumphs earlier in the season providing the backdrop, the glory days of the Ork roll on. Surprising, as internet wisdom would claim that the codex is sub-par. It’s possible that the Irish focus on eliminating medium and light mech has limited the amount of anti-infantry fire these lists face.

The second and third strongest codexes were Dark Eldar and Imperial Guard, running only slightly ahead of the Dark Angels book. But that’s not important. What really matters is the following message.
————————————————–
Dear Space Marine players,

Please stop hurting yourself.

Yours,
Dodgy Statistics
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Dominicon: Return of the Guard

Once again, the War Altar decides to brighten up your day with colour. Let’s see what Dominicon tells us about the state of Irish 40K. For the sake of context, Dominicon was a 1750, ETC 2011 tournament. The attendees were largely Dublin-area gamers with a large Northern contingent. The list submission and painting scores have been stripped from the equation and we are dealing only with pure battle points.

Firstly, we have the percentage of players using each codex. The major change from Gaelcon is the re-emergence of the Imperial Guard. From nowhere, they return to claim a strong fifth of the field. We see further consolidation towards the better books as the top four codexes were used by 68% of the players. The Tyranids, Tau and former Necron codexes remain dead, dead, dead. Strangely, Black Templars appear to have vanished once more.
Now, we look at proportionate shares of the total battle points. Grey Knights, Dark Angels and Dark Eldar all perform well above par, roughly in line with the previous tournament. Eldar and Blood Angels continue to march firmly down the middle of the road. There are some surprising misfires and one that… isn’t. The poor performance of the Space Marines is unsurprising and consistent with previous results. Not so elsewhere, we would expect Space Wolves and Imperial Guard to do better.

Based on average score, Dark Angels are the best codex ever. But only when played by Alec, the 40k Irish Master. Let’s try to disregard that anomaly. The Dark Eldar narrowly pip Grey Knights as both armies perform very strongly. As previously stated, Space Wolves and Guard perform poorly. Anecdotally, there was a large proportion of less optimised lists from both armies, which may have skewed the figures. It should be noted that despite a poor showing, they remain well clear of the godforsaken Space Marines.

So, another tournament and the stats continue to support what we all really suspect. Oh, well.

From the current information, Assault on Arkham was largely Northern players and Moocon was largely Southern players. This is… interesting as the next set of charts might show some regional variations. More importantly, we should start seeing the impact of the new Necrons and identify the impact of the move from 1750 to 1000 points.

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